Ukraine and lessons from the Western Balkans

By: Ilir Deda

Dear Saša,

In recent years, I’ve had the privilege of taking part in several closed panels, roundtables, and discussions on the situation in Ukraine. Members of the country’s institutions were present. Their wishes, goals, and frustrations were, for the most part, sincere.

One of those meetings took place after the U.S. presidential elections. I regretted the absence of people from the Western Balkans—people who could offer extensive experience or lessons learned to share with Ukrainians.

At last year’s gathering, I was truly surprised by how unfamiliar some European speakers were with the realities of American politics, even though they reflected the prevailing views within Europe’s mainstream. Most participants did not appreciate what was said during the discussion; there was a sense of weariness—put mildly—toward the idea that those of us from our region might have experiences worth sharing with others on the continent.

Yet we have a great deal to offer.

During one of his lectures, Ivan Krastev said clearly and emphatically—paraphrasing here—“people who followed the wars in the former Yugoslavia understand today’s global challenges far better than others in Europe,” a statement with which I fully agree. I would add to that our instinctive sense for what a peace agreement on Ukraine might look like, and especially for the major challenges that await a post-conflict Ukraine.

It seems we are entering the final stage of negotiations on peace in Ukraine—negotiations that include the country’s future borders.

Last year, I urged my Ukrainian friends to start thinking about post-conflict Ukraine. Specifically: how will society react to the new reality once it realizes that it did not get everything it asked for? How will people accept the country’s new borders and the fact that the state will face limitations regarding NATO accession? Furthermore, how long will it take to rebuild the country—to establish functional and democratic institutions, the rule of law, anti-corruption mechanisms, and political pluralism?

I pointed to the Western Balkans, where nearly three decades after the wars, a culture of peace and a strong democratic order still have not been fully built. Will Ukraine need 50 years?

I also raised the issue of EU membership and our own two-decade wait, asking whether they truly believe they will join the EU in 2030 or 2035. And how will they respond when they realize that EU accession isn’t a matter of just a few years and today’s political catchphrases?

I ask similar questions whenever I get the chance because I believe they are crucial for Ukraine’s future. And they stem from the (un)learned lessons of the last two and a half to three decades in the Western Balkans—from missed opportunities and limited progress toward building an overall culture of peace.

Warm regards,

Ilir