Kosovo will head to snap parliamentary elections on December 28, following the dissolution of the Assembly earlier this week. Political analyst Miodrag Marinković argues that the timing, coinciding with the return of diaspora for the holidays, is a deliberate strategic calculation that could significantly influence the outcome.
President Vjosa Osmani dissolved the Assembly on November 20 after the nominee of the Vetëvendosje Movement (LVV), Glauk Konjufca, failed to secure the required majority to form a government. Konjufca received 56 votes in favor, 53 against, and four abstentions—short of the 61 needed. It was the second unsuccessful attempt in less than ten days, after outgoing Prime Minister Albin Kurti also failed to gather support for his proposed cabinet.
Kosovo now faces new elections just ten months after the previous parliamentary vote, following months of institutional paralysis.
Local Institutions Unaffected
According to Marinković, from the Center for Affirmative Social Action (CASA), the dissolution of the Assembly and the fact that the government is currently operating in a technical mandate will have “no impact whatsoever” on the formation of local institutions in the north.
He notes that once the Central Election Commission certified the results of the recent local elections, a 15-day legal deadline began for convening the constitutive session of municipal assemblies.
“The responsibility lies first with the mayor. If he fails to call the first session, it passes to the oldest assembly member, and ultimately to the majority of councilors,” he explained.
Return of Srpska Lista
Marinković expects the establishment of new administrations in Serb-majority municipalities in the North, ending what he describes as a period of “absurdity” under local authorities appointed by the central government after mass resignations in 2022.
“These administrations did not function as a service to citizens, but as instruments for Prime Minister Kurti’s political objectives, continuously suppressing the interests of the Serbian community and even mocking its identity,” he said.
However, he warns that the return of Srpska Lista to municipal leadership should not create illusions of prosperity.
“We will face old problems: corruption, clientelism, political control of institutions, systematic suppression of pluralism,” he stated. “But that is now a completely different issue—one of democratic credibility of elected officials, not an ethnic political experiment we previously witnessed.”
Weakening of Vetëvendosje
Marinković believes Vetëvendosje’s political legitimacy has been significantly weakened, despite its victory in February’s parliamentary elections. LVV won the most votes but failed to secure a majority in the 120-seat Assembly. Opposition parties rejected its offer for a technical government, and the movement secured only seven municipalities in the recent local elections.
“The argument that they still have a moral and political mandate because they received the most votes in February no longer stands,” he said. “Even then they lacked a majority, and today their position is even weaker.”
He points out that cumulatively, LDK and PDK received the most votes in local elections, while Vetëvendosje placed third—suggesting that the party’s political weight “exists only in their rhetoric, not on the ground.”
The December Vote: Political Calculations and Diaspora Influence
Marinković labels the December 28 date a “New Year elections paradox,” stressing that it coincides with the return of a large number of voters from the diaspora who, he argues, traditionally vote emotionally and lean toward “harder national options.”
“This is not a coincidence, but a political calculation by Albin Kurti,” he claims. “The diaspora often chooses symbolically and identity-driven options, without bearing the consequences of policies enacted afterward. They do not live under the government they elect, so they have the luxury of voting emotionally.”
He adds that Vetëvendosje draws much of its support from lower-income groups who travel less during the holidays, making political mobilization easier.
High Stakes and International Oversight
While some analysts suggest that the timing may reduce international engagement due to holiday schedules, Marinković dismisses the idea that oversight will weaken.
“These elections are too important for international actors to ignore, regardless of the date,” he argues.
Looking ahead, he believes the key battle for Vetëvendosje is not the 60 seats the movement claims it is aiming for, but the threshold of 40 seats, which would make it a crucial player in the presidential election scheduled for spring 2026.
“That will be another critical moment that could easily result in yet another round of parliamentary elections,” he warns.
According to Marinković, any result for Vetëvendosje between 40 and 60 seats would prolong Kosovo’s political crisis well beyond December.
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